M+E Daily

The growth of 5G next-generation wireless technology and the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on technology were among the major themes at the first all-digital CES, Jan. 11-14.

The first of those themes became clear on the first day. First, during a Consumer Technology Association (CTA) press conference, Steve Koenig, its VP of research, and Lesley Rorhbaugh, its director of research, previewed trends to watch during CES and throughout 2021, and 5G was one of the key trends they discussed.

Koenig and Rorhbaugh provided projections from CTA’s semi-annual Industry Forecasts, lending data and context to the categories to watch.

CTA is predicting that smartphone shipments will increase 4% to 161 million units in 2021, earning $73 billion in revenue (up 5% over last year), following a year of slight declines. Over 67 million 5G smartphones are expected to ship in 2021 (whopping 298% growth over last year for the nascent category) and generate $39 billion in revenue (a 218% leap), as consumer awareness of 5G grows and service is available in more locations across the country, according to CTA.

There are currently about 135 commercial 5G networks globally, Koenig said. However, “this hasn’t been a really uniform deployment,” he said, pointing to a map of the world showing how the technology’s launch timing has varied by country. While it launched in 2018 and 2019 in some regions, the launch was delayed until 2020 in some places, it’s been deployed but has yet to launch in other regions and there is active investing being seen elsewhere.

“I think by the middle part of the decade, we can reasonably expect to see 5G up and running really all around the globe,” he predicted.

Citing a November study by IHS Markit and Qualcomm, he said the health crisis is accelerating 5G capital expenditures and jobs, with investments up 10.8% in 2020 vs. 2019 and 5G-related jobs expected to increase to 22.8 million (from 22.3 million) over the next 15 years in the U.S., China, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the U.K.

A little later the same day, during the first virtual CES keynote, Hans Vestberg, CEO and chairman of Verizon, demonstrated the immersive 5G experience across sports, education, connected communities and live music, and announced partnerships with the National Football League (NFL) and others.

Vestberg announced Verizon will be rolling out its 5G Ultra Wideband network “in 28 NFL stadiums in 2021, with expanded coverage in selected stadiums,” adding: “Soon we’ll be able to transform 5G-enabled NFL venues into digital arenas that can host mobile game events with real-time, on-site multiplayer action.” The expansion to the 28 NFL stadiums will be completed by the end of this year, according to Verizon. Verizon also confirmed availability of 5G Ultra Wideband in Raymond James Stadium, home of Super Bowl LV on Feb. 7.

Meanwhile, the pandemic’s impact on technology was clear even before the start of CES 2021 due to the very fact that it was forced to be done virtually for the first time.

Showcasing how much tech companies have innovated during the pandemic, CTA noted that companies touted smart masks, disinfecting robots, body sensors that detect COVID-19 symptoms and smart air filtration systems.

Meanwhile, the heads of privacy at Amazon, Google and Twitter discussed new privacy regulations and the need to increase consumer trust, stating that tech companies must give users more control over their data.

“CES showed how the pandemic accelerated the arc of innovation and illustrated the resilience and innovative spirit of our industry,” according to Gary Shapiro, president and CEO of CTA, the owner and producer of the annual show. “From the latest innovations for the home and entertainment, and advances in 5G, vehicle technology, AI and digital health, the technologies at CES 2021 will pave the way for a brighter tomorrow,” he said in a statement Jan. 14, as the event came to a close.

Nearly 2,000 companies unveiled next-gen innovation and products during the online event, including almost 700 startups from 37 countries, according to CTA.

There were 19 press conferences on the opening day of the show, with companies including Sony, Bosch, Canon, Caterpillar, Hisense, Intel, LG Electronics, Mercedes-Benz, Panasonic and Samsung Electronics breaking news and launching products – albeit without any ability for attendees to then go and see, hear and touch the actual products shown.

Sony came out with a slew of announcements covering all corners of media and entertainment, including virtual production tools with volumetric real-world capture, allowing sets and locations for productions to be captured as 3D volumetric point cloud data, before being processed and rendered by Sony Innovation Studios’ “Atom View” software, and then displayed as background images on LED displays for real-time, virtual production.

Other MESA members that made noise at CES included Dolby, NAGRA and Technicolor.

More CTA Predictions

CTA predicted that retail sales revenue for the technology industry will reach $461 billion in the U.S. in 2021 – a 4.3% increase year-over-year. As millions of Americans remain home and rely on tech to stay entertained, connected and healthy during the pandemic, streaming services, 5G connectivity and digital health devices will stand out in the tech sector in 2021, it predicted.

“The pandemic has pushed the fast-forward button on tech adoption – from our homes to our work to our doctor’s offices,” according to Shapiro. “While the road to a full economic recovery is long and intertwined with a complex vaccine rollout, the tech industry’s ability to meet the moment during this crisis has been critical,” he said.

Technology product “demand in the first several months of 2021 will look a lot like the last few months of 2020,” predicted Rick Kowalski, director of industry analysis and business intelligence at CTA.

“Streaming services, 5G connectivity and digital health devices will push consumer tech forward in the year ahead as innovative technologies prove their resilience during challenging times,” he predicted, adding: “The industry’s ability to meet societal needs in a variety of circumstances will bring growth in 2021 as the world emerges from the pandemic.”

Total spending on streaming services and software is projected to reach a record high of $112 billion in 2021 (11% growth over 2020), following 31% growth in 2020 over 2019), CTA said.

In video, “exclusive content and cord-cutting are driving multiple subscriptions per household to push spending to $41 billion in 2021, up 15% over last year,” CTA said.

“Households channeled discretionary dollars into upgrading” TVs in 2020, which was a “record-setting year for shipments,” it noted. CTA expects “steady demand for displays in 2021 as TVs remain the centerpiece for entertainment in homes,” it said. TV shipments will drop 8% to 43 million units in 2021, the second-highest volume on record, while revenues are expected to slip just 1% to $22 billion, according to CTA. Growth areas for TVs in 2021 are expected to include sets over 70 inches (3.3 million units, up 6%) and 8K Ultra High-Definition TVs (1.7 million units, up 300%).

In audio, music, audio book and podcast listening, with services including Apple Music and Pandora, are projected to reach $10 billion in revenue, up 19% over last year, according to CTA. For the first time, in 2020, total wireless headphone and earbud shipments surpassed wired headphones and earbuds. True wireless earbuds, including Apple AirPods and Samsung Galaxy Buds, are “driving growth, with 91 million units expected to ship in 2021 (up 32%), representing $9.3 billion in revenue (up 16%),” CTA said.

In gaming, U.S. households are playing video games more than ever before and CTA projected the video game software and services category will reach $47 billion in revenue this year, up 8% from 2020. On the hardware side, the arrival of next-generation game consoles from Microsoft and Sony are expected by CTA to “continue to drive sales, as the supply chain catches up with consumer demand,” it said. “Combined home and portable console shipments will reach 18 million units in 2021, up 3%, earning $6 billion in revenue (up 16%),” it predicted.

Finally, in computing, 2020 was a “record year for laptops (enterprise and consumer), with more families than ever working and learning from home,” CTA said, predicting laptop shipments will remain strong in 2021, reaching 69 million units (up 1% over last year) and earning $38 billion in revenue (down 2%).